Mega Millions Odds Calculator
Calculate your Mega Millions chances under the verified rules: 5 white balls from 1–70 plus 1 gold Mega Ball from 1–24, $5 per play with the multiplier included. Enter a ticket count to see the jackpot odds, your probability, the total cost, and the expected tickets for one win.
How the Jackpot Odds Are Derived
The jackpot requires matching all 5 white balls and the Mega Ball. The white-ball combinations are C(70, 5) = 12,103,014. Each of those can pair with any of the 24 Mega Balls:
12,103,014 × 24 = 290,472,336
So the jackpot odds are 1 in 290,472,336, or about 0.000000344% per ticket. This derivation uses the same engine as the calculator above — the figure is computed from the rules, not copied from a table.
Mega Millions Prize Tiers
9 ways to win, from the jackpot down to the lowest tier. Odds are per play. Non-jackpot prizes shown by Multiplier multiplier (Included in the $5.00 ticket price — no extra cost.).
| Match | 2X | 3X | 4X | 5X | 10X | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 + Mega Ball | — | — | — | — | — | 1 in 290,472,336 |
| 5 | $2,000,000 | $3,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $5,000,000 | $10,000,000 | 1 in 12,629,232 |
| 4 + Mega Ball | $20,000 | $30,000 | $40,000 | $50,000 | $100,000 | 1 in 893,761 |
| 4 | $1,000 | $1,500 | $2,000 | $2,500 | $5,000 | 1 in 38,859 |
| 3 + Mega Ball | $400 | $600 | $800 | $1,000 | $2,000 | 1 in 13,965 |
| 3 | $20 | $30 | $40 | $50 | $100 | 1 in 607 |
| 2 + Mega Ball | $20 | $30 | $40 | $50 | $100 | 1 in 665 |
| 1 + Mega Ball | $14 | $21 | $28 | $35 | $70 | 1 in 86 |
| Mega Ball only | $10 | $15 | $20 | $25 | $50 | 1 in 35 |
Overall odds of winning any prize: 1 in 23. Tier odds and prizes are the official prize table; the jackpot odds match the derivation above. The multiplier (2X–10X, included in the ticket price) applies to non-jackpot prizes only.
What About Buying More Tickets?
Buying additional tickets increases the number of combinations covered, but the jackpot probability may remain extremely small. With n tickets covering different combinations, the chance of at least one jackpot win is 1 − (1 − p)n:
- 10 tickets — about a 0.000003443% chance, costing $50
- 100 tickets — about a 0.0000344% chance, costing $500
- 1,000 tickets — about a 0.000344% chance, costing $5,000
Explore any ticket count on the lottery probability calculator .
How We Calculate
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Start with the selected lottery amount. Enter the advertised jackpot and the cash option (or choose the annuity to estimate one annual payment).
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Determine the cash or taxable amount. For a lump sum, the cash option is the taxable amount. For an annuity, each annual payment is taxed in the year it is received.
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Apply applicable federal tax rules. Lottery winnings are taxed as ordinary income. The calculator subtracts the standard deduction for your filing status, then applies that year's progressive federal tax brackets.
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Apply applicable state rules. The calculator applies the state's configured planning rate. States that do not tax lottery winnings show $0 state tax. Local and city taxes are not included.
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Calculate estimated total tax. Estimated federal and state taxes are added together for the total estimated tax liability.
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Calculate estimated take-home amount. Estimated total tax is subtracted from the taxable amount. This is an estimate of final liability — withholding shown separately is what may be held back when you are paid, and it is credited against this liability.
Results are estimates for informational purposes only — not tax, legal, or financial advice. Your actual tax bill depends on your full tax return, the lottery's rules, and the laws in effect when you claim the prize.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the odds of winning the Mega Millions jackpot?
The odds are 1 in 290,472,336 — about 0.000000344% per $5 ticket. You must match all 5 white balls (1–70) plus the Mega Ball (1–24).
How are the Mega Millions jackpot odds calculated?
There are C(70, 5) = 12,103,014 ways to choose 5 white balls from 70. Each pairs with 24 possible Mega Balls, giving 12,103,014 × 24 = 290,472,336 possible combinations — hence 1 in 290,472,336.
What are the odds of winning any Mega Millions prize?
About 1 in 23 across all nine prize tiers — from the $10 Mega Ball–only prize (1 in 35) up to the jackpot. The full tier table below lists every tier's odds and prize at each multiplier level.
Does the multiplier change the jackpot odds?
No. One of five multipliers (2X–10X) is randomly assigned at purchase and included in the $5 ticket price, but it applies only to non-jackpot prizes. It changes prize amounts, not odds.
Do more Mega Millions tickets meaningfully improve my chances?
Buying additional tickets increases the number of combinations covered, but the jackpot probability may remain extremely small. Ten tickets give about a 0.000003443% chance — ten times a microscopic probability is still microscopic.
Is the jackpot really harder to win than Powerball's?
The two games' jackpot odds are very close: 1 in 290,472,336 for Mega Millions versus 1 in 292,201,338 for Powerball. Both probabilities are microscopic, and the difference has no practical meaning for a ticket buyer.
Sources & References
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Mega Millions official how-to-play · Mega Millions Consortium · Last verified 2026-09-28
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Mega Millions prizes and odds table · Mega Millions Consortium · Last verified 2026-09-28